This is only the second year of this event, so the lack of course history also creates another wrinkle. Expect plenty of birdies, as Detroit Golf Club was the seventh easiest course on the PGA Tour last season. Below, you’ll find my favorite value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel, as we have a fourth straight week of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker.
High Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($10,700 DraftKings | $11,100 FanDuel)
It’s easy to recognize the upside of Hatton, who has won twice in his last five starts worldwide and has two other top-10s in that span. This week will arguably be the weakest field of any of those other starts.
Safest Option: Webb Simpson ($11,000 DK | $12,100 FD)
Simpson rarely disappoints when he’s this expensive. Per the RickRunGood.com database, Simpson has been $11,000+ on DraftKings five times. He hasn’t scored less than 99.5 DraftKings points in any of those weeks, which is the return you need at this price point.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200 DK | $11,000 FD)
The restart for Matsuyama was classic Hideki. He reminded us that there is no floor when it comes to his short game. He lost 5.19 strokes/putting and another 1.49 around-the-green. It won’t matter how good his ball-striking is if those numbers keep popping up.
Pick To Win: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700 DK | $12,200 FD)
How can he not win?! Seriously, wins must be coming in bulk for DeChambeau. There are so many great stats that I could point to for Bryson, but I’ll settle on this one. The 2.76 strokes off-the-tee that he gained last week was good for 13th in the field. That was his worst week off-the-tee this calendar year. Is Bryson breaking the game? Yes.
High Upside: Rory Sabbatini ($8,800 DK| $9,900 FD)
There’s something brewing for the “other Rory.” Since the restart, he’s finished T-14 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T-21 at the RBC Heritage. At the latter, he gained strokes in all four major strokes-gained categories. The kicker is his third-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last season.
Safest Option: Lucas Glover ($8,400 DK | $9,800 FD)
The 2009 U.S. Open champ has three straight top-25s to restart the season, getting increasingly better each week. His Sunday 63 was the best round he’s shot since the Shriners Hospital Open.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Jason Day ($8,600 DK |$9,900 FD)
Prior to last week’s T-46, Day’s recent results have been: MC, MC, WD, MC, fourth (Pebble Beach). It’s feast or famine with Day, and recently, it’s been more famine.
Pick To Win: Doc Redman ($8,500 DK | $10,000 FD)
This is absolutely about converging trends—Redman was 13th in strokes gained/tee-to-green at the RBC Heritage and third in the same category last week. Now he returns to Detroit Golf Club where he finished second last season, his best finish as a professional.
High Upside: Mark Hubbard ($7,200 DK | $8,800 FD)
This has been a very solid restart for Hubbard, making the cut in all three weeks. Last week’s Travelers Championship is the most promising, as we saw one of his best ball-striking weeks this season. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see his name inside the top 15 with this field.
Safest Option: Will Gordon ($7,300 DK | $9,100 FD)
Is Will Gordon safe? I’m not sure anyone in this tier is that safe, but Gordon “needs” this the most. He’s playing on temporary status, which means he needs high finishes to secure his card. Obviously he played well last week, finishing T-3, but that is his fourth finish of 21st or better in his last five PGA Tour events, so it might not have been that much of a fluke.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Brandt Snedeker ($7,900 DK | $9,700 FD)
As he tends to do, Snedeker rode a hot putter last week, gaining 4.99 strokes on the field. I’m more concerned about his approach game, where he lost 5.97 strokes to the field, his worst event since the 2018 Players.
Pick To Win: Harold Varner III ($7,600 DK| $9,300 FD)
Varner was fifth in the field last week in strokes gained/approach (gaining 7.17 strokes). That is usually a very “sticky” stat from week to week.
High Upside: Lanto Griffin ($6,800 DK | $8,600 FD)
After a slow restart, Griffin posted his best finish since Pebble Beach with a T-24 last week. He gained strokes in each of the four main categories and is already a winner this season.
Safest Option: Sam Burns ($6,900 DK | $8,500 FD)
Let’s be clear, “safe” is relative when you’re below $7,000. However, Burns posted a top-25 finish last week and only has two missed cuts since the American Express. He finished 14th in strokes gained/tee-to-green last week.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Patton Kizzire ($6,900 DK | $8,100 FD)
That T-6 from Kizzire last week was his best finish since winning the Sony Open in January 2018. Before last week, he went 15 straight starts without cracking the top 40. That’s tough to stomach. Longer-term stats over a one week sample tells us that the most likely outcome is that Kizzire performs closer back to his baseline.
Pick To Win: Wesley Bryan ($6,500 DK | $8,000 FD)
This one is deep but there is something going on with Wes Bryan right now. It hasn’t been a good run for Bryan who missed the majority of last year with an injury, now playing on a major medical exemption. He led the field in strokes gained/approach last week with a whopping 9.31. He’s going to be bad off the tee, but the rest of the game is the best it’s been in years.